Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
